If you import or distribute wine, what number comes first when you build an October to December plan?
For many businesses it is last year's shipments, followed by a seasonal uplift. That is a reasonable place to begin, but it is not enough in a market that is still carrying excess inventory. A shipment tells you what moved into the chain. It does not tell you how much of that stock moved through the next tier, how much remains on hand, or whether the same order should be repeated.
Silicon Valley Bank estimates that US wine volume reached roughly 329 million cases in 2025, down 2.0% from 2024, while industry value declined 1.6% to about $74.3 billion. More important for an inventory plan, its report describes elevated inventories across the supply chain as a continuing structural headwind [1].
WSWA's SipSource 2026 preview adds another view of the same difficult market. It reports wine revenue down 7.1% in 2025 and points of distribution declining for a second consecutive year across channels [2].
These figures are built on different methods and should not be compared as if the difference between them measures inventory. SVB's industry estimate also incorporates depletion data alongside several other sources. What they do support is the operating context: demand remains under pressure, wholesaler movement is weak, shelf placements are contracting, and inventory is still elevated.
Shipment history does not show the opening position
The problem with using last year's shipments as the main planning input is not that the history is wrong. It is that the number stops at your customer. It records the order you fulfilled, not the inventory your partner still held afterward or the rate at which that inventory left the next tier.
In a growing market, that distinction can be easier to absorb. In a correction, it becomes part of the next order. A distributor may buy less because it is working through stock already on hand, even if consumer demand for a particular SKU has been relatively stable. An importer looking only at its own shipment history can read that change too late or assign it to the wrong cause.
Points of distribution matter for the same reason. Losing placements does not automatically tell you what demand will be, but it changes how much opportunity each SKU has to move. A seasonal uplift copied from last year should not survive unchanged when the number of active placements, the inventory at those placements, or the depletion rate has changed.
Reconcile what is already in the chain
Before applying a seasonal factor, I would want one opening position for each SKU: stock in my own warehouse, confirmed inbound supply, inventory held by distribution partners, recent depletions, and any material change in active placements. None of those numbers is sufficient on its own. Together they show whether the planned order is supplying likely demand or repeating inventory that has not yet cleared.
This does not require a platform in every case. An importer with a focused portfolio and one distributor partner may be able to maintain the picture through a disciplined spreadsheet and a regular conversation. The difficulty grows when the same SKU sits with several partners across multiple markets, each reporting on a different cadence and in a different format.
At that point, the forecasting question is not simply how much the holidays will add. It is whether everyone is starting from the same inventory position. That is the number the OND build has to earn its way above.
References
[1] Silicon Valley Bank, "Silicon Valley Bank Releases 25th Annual State of the US Wine Industry Report," 15 January 2026. Read the report summary.
[2] Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, "SipSource 2026 Preview: Top 5 Things to Know," 17 February 2026. Read the SipSource preview.